WHY ARE OUR NUMBERS DIFFERENT THAN THE POSTAL SERVICE'S?
That’s a question that has been bugging me. The Postal Service, as regularly reported by PRC Commissioner, Tom Day, shows First-Class mail more than 90% on time on a regular basis. We show them closer to 80% in most cases. We use the same methodology as USPS in most cases. Our sample size is statistically significant – millions of pieces a week from hundreds of entry points. So, why the discrepancy?
I dug in over the weekend to see what I could find. One big difference is that our sample includes mail created by commercial mailers being delivered to points across the country. Only about three percent (3%) of our First-Class Mail is intra-SCF – local mail. Local mail does perform better. For 2026 YTD, Intra-SCF First-Class Letters are on time 88.75% of the time. Destinations outside the origin SCF are on time 81.3% of the time. It’s a big difference. We only, of course, see a sample of the mail – even though it’s a big sample. USPS sees all the mail. It is possible that a great proportion of the First-Class Mail tracked by USPS is local, which tends to be more on time. This may account for some of the discrepancy.
It doesn't explain why their numbers have crept above 90%. USPS data is vague on the methodology, but they appear to use some measure that inflates their results.
Take a look at our monthly newsletter next week and we’ll dive in a little deeper.
Otherwise, looks like just another summer week for USPS.
